When Can We Go On An Adventure Again?

14 de abril de 2020

When Can We Go On An Adventure Again?

It’s not just hotels, airlines, cruise lines that have been impacted by the stay-at-home bans to curb the coronavirus. The adventure travel industry, which is comprised of many small family-owned outfitters, has taken a devastating hit. I caught up with Shannon Stowell, the CEO of the Adventure Travel Trade Association, to get his viewpoint on what the future holds for the industry.

Everett Potter: Shannon, you’re in Washington State, which was hit early on. What do you see for adventure travel for the remainder of 2020?

Shannon Stowell: It’s hard to say but what I’m hearing is that the front edge will likely be June or July but I think this will be only the most intrepid or very necessary travel. I think the masses will not be moving back onto planes much in 2020. That being said, there are things that could impact that depending on where we are at in the infections/recovery cycles.

EP: Where do you see adventure travel demand post-coronavirus?

SS: I think it will be a slow start but once people know that the wave is over, they see other people traveling and ultimately when there is a vaccination announced, then demand may spike. But I do think some types of travel may not recover for a very long time, if ever. Being enclosed with thousands of people in a cruise ship will cause many to pause with the torrent of horror stories coming out. Small groups and more remote travel will be much more attractive.

EP: Will adventure travel be in the vanguard?

SS: I believe it will be among the first to recover due to the fact that the travelers are more intrepid in general and the type of travel is usually about immersion in nature, staying active and healthy and visiting remote communities, so it doesn’t trigger the fears that crowded places may. I think travelers will rely even more on experts and safety and social distancing for some time.

EP: How will social distancing affect travel when it finally resumes?

SS: This is so interesting to imagine. I think this will reflect different groups of people’s comfort levels. Some people will never go back to normal social interactions, some will be more cautious, especially if there’s a flare-up anywhere and I think we’ll potentially see a permanent shift in human behavior. I hope that the distancing starts to fade over time but if there is (God forbid) a second round like this one, that will most certainly change how people interact in social settings. That being said, I’ve seen recent pictures from China with crowded areas again so maybe this is a Western perspective. I do think it will be sad if we get to the point where we have to ask if it’s okay to shake someone’s hand. As in, ‘Nice to meet you, are you a handshaker?’ ‘No’. Also, wearing masks will be more common and for those who didn’t grow up wearing masks very often, I think it will be problematic.

EP: Do you think domestic travel will be the first to recover?

SS: Yes. It will be the first part of the travel experience for many. I know there is a lot of interest in road trips, camping, things like that which allow people to dip their toes back in the water. Demand from being pent-up will probably be significant.

EP: What about international travel?

SS: Spotty. Just like we’ve seen regrettable cases of xenophobia riled up by the pandemic, I believe it will deter certain people from going to certain places for a while. Also, international travel is expensive and the people who were one of the main markets- the boomers- have spent the last 3 months hearing hundreds if not thousands of times that their age group puts them at risk. So the people who travel will be the more intrepid types. I think it may take years to get back to 2019 numbers.

EP: How do you envision the airlines getting back to something approaching normal?

SS: For years people have talked about ‘catching a cold on a flight’. Whether a traveler’s understanding of how air and filters work in a plane is fact-based or not, there is a widely held belief that people that fly run a chance of catching cold or flu. I have to think this will translate to the coronavirus as well. It will be very important for airlines to combat this both in reality and perception. I wonder if temperature scanners will be in airports denying people from even entering the airports should they show signs of fever? In my own experience I already dread the airport experience as it has gotten increasingly miserable and this will push it over the top for some.

EP: Do you expect a flood of deals from providers?

SS: I do. There will be a lot of travel companies hanging on by their fingernails who will be so thrilled to have customers again that I can see deals being a way to woo people back on the road. That being said, there may be fewer competitors to drive a potential ‘race to the bottom’ so I hope the discounts won’t be significant as the travel industry will need all the margin it can get to recover, pay off loans and debt and rebuild.

EP: Any other thoughts looking forward?

SS: Being in what appears the middle of the peak of the pandemic does make me unsure about any of my predictions. When I look back at things I said or wrote just 2 or 3 weeks ago, it looks out of touch and tone deaf because things have changed so rapidly and dramatically. Last year I did tell a reporter that I wouldn’t mind seeing overall travel arrivals decline until the industry became more climatically and socially responsible. Well…. now it happened. So our opportunity is to rebuild the industry differently. I really hope that companies and professionals will not try to go back to what we considered ‘normal’ because normal was not very responsible as an overall industry. I think the opportunity now is for leaders to lead and do the right thing by rebuilding smarter, which may mean smaller, and demand that travelers also behave as though travel is a privilege, not a right.